With the era of cheap, bountiful water having been replaced by increasing supply and quality constraints, the risk of an overt water war is now increasing.Īvoiding such conflicts will require rules-based co-operation, water sharing and dispute-settlement mechanisms. ![]() In this light, water is becoming the world's next major security and economic challenge.Īlthough no modern war has been fought just over water, it has been an underlying factor in several armed conflicts. For example, it is about 10 times more water-intensive to produce beef than to produce cereals. Rising incomes, for example, have promoted richer diets, especially a greater intake of meat, whose production is notoriously water-intensive. But the human population has almost doubled since 1970 alone, while the global economy has grown even faster.Ĭonsumption growth has become the single biggest driver of water stress. Nature's fixed water-replenishment capacity limits the world's renewable freshwater resources to nearly 43,000 billion cubic metres per year. Water is a renewable but finite resource. Economies that are already water-stressed, ranging from South Korea and India to Egypt and Morocco, are paying a higher price. But China isn't even considered to be under water stress – a term internationally defined as the availability of less than 1,700 cubic metres of water per head per year. The World Bank has estimated the economic cost of China's water problems at 2.3 per cent of its GDP. For example, commercial or state decisions in many countries on where to set up new manufacturing or energy plants are increasingly being constrained by inadequate water availability. Water stress is also imposing mounting socioeconomic costs. State Department, for its part, has upgraded water to a "central" foreign-policy concern. Meanwhile, the InterAction Council, comprising more than 30 former heads of state or government, has called for urgent action, saying that some countries battling severe water shortages risk failing. intelligence agencies, the use of water as a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism appears more likely in the next decade in some regions. intelligence has warned that such water conflicts could turn into real wars.Īccording to a report reflecting the joint judgment of U.S. Some build dams on international rivers or, if located downstream, resort to coercive diplomacy to prevent such construction. It is against this background that water wars, in a political and economic sense, are already being waged between competing states in several regions. Lifestyle changes, for example, have spurred increasing per-capita water consumption in the form of industrial and agricultural products. Rapid economic and demographic expansion has already turned potable water into a major issue across large parts of the world. ![]() A recent example was the Fukushima disaster, which triggered a triple nuclear meltdown.īecause of global warming, potable water is set to come under increasing strain even as oceans rise and the intensity and frequency of storms and other extreme weather events increases. Many of the greatest natural disasters of our time have been related to water. Water's paradox is that it is a life preserver, but it can also be a life destroyer when it becomes a carrier of deadly bacteria or comes in the deluge of a tsunami, a flash flood or a hurricane. It comes from the Latin rivalis – one who uses the same stream. ![]() Even the origin of the word "rival" is tied to water competition. But not the most vital resource, water – at least not in a major or sustainable way. From distant lands, a country can import fossil fuels, mineral ores and resources originating in the biosphere, such as fish and timber. There are substitutes for many resources, including oil, but none for water. Water, however, is very different from other natural resources. ![]() Access to natural resources has been a key factor, historically, in war and peace.
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